Hunt for Black Swans during unguarded moments

Pay close attention to your counterpart during interruptions, odd exchanges, or anything that interrupts the flow. When someone breaks ranks, people’s façades crack just a little. During a typical business meeting, the first few minutes, before you actually get down to business, and the last few moments, as everyone is leaving, often tell you more about the other side than anything in between. –Never split the difference, p.237 Continue reading Hunt for Black Swans during unguarded moments

Your counterpart is acting not rationally (to you)?

They probably have hidden interests. Your counterpart will often reject offers for reasons that have nothing to do with their merits. Ex: A client may put off buying your product so that their calendar year closes before the invoice hits, increasing his chance for a promotion. Or an employee might quit in the middle of a career-making project, just before bonus season, because he or she has learned that colleagues are making more money. For that employee, fairness is as much an interest as money. Whatever the specifics, these people are not acting irrationally. They are simply complying with needs … Continue reading Your counterpart is acting not rationally (to you)?

It is when we hear or see something that doesn’t make sense – something “crazy” – that you need to push forward, even more forcefully.

It is when we hear or see something that doesn’t make sense – something “crazy” – that a crucial fork in the road is presented: push forward, even more forcefully, into that which we initially can’t process; or take the other path, the one to guaranteed failure. […] when we’re most ready to throw our hands up and declare “They’re crazy!” is often the best moment for discovering Black Swans that transform a negotiation. –Never split the difference, p.232 Continue reading It is when we hear or see something that doesn’t make sense – something “crazy” – that you need to push forward, even more forcefully.

Be on the lookout for Black Swans

In negotiation, there are those things we don’t know that we don’t know, pieces of information we’ve never imagined but that would be game changing if uncovered. Maybe our counterpart wants the deal to fail because he’s leaving for a competitor. Hypothesize that in every negotiation each side is in possession of at least three Black Swans. Always ask yourself: “Why are they communicating what they are communicating right now?” Sometimes, your counterpart might be oblivious to a Black Swan or unaware of its importance. –Never split the difference, p.219 Continue reading Be on the lookout for Black Swans